%0 Journal Article
%4 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2017/04.19.14.58
%2 sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2017/04.19.14.58.39
%@doi 10.1038/ncomms14681
%@issn 2041-1723
%T Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks
%D 2017
%8 Mar.
%9 journal article
%A Zemp, Delphine Clara,
%A Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich,
%A Barbosa, Henrique M. J.,
%A Hirota, Marina,
%A Montade, Vicent,
%A Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de,
%A Staal, Arie,
%A Wang-Erlandsson, Lang,
%A Ramming, Anja,
%@affiliation Humboldt Universität zu Berlin
%@affiliation Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
%@affiliation Universidade de São Paulo (USP)
%@affiliation Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC)
%@affiliation Georg-August-University
%@affiliation Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)
%@affiliation Wageningen University
%@affiliation Delft University of Technology
%@affiliation Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
%@electronicmailaddress dzemp@gwdg.de
%@electronicmailaddress
%@electronicmailaddress
%@electronicmailaddress
%@electronicmailaddress
%@electronicmailaddress gilvan.sampaio@inpe.br
%B Nature Communications
%V 8
%X Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.
%@language en
%3 zemp_self.pdf